SpaceX IPO Valuation: Bull Case of $330 if Key Opportunities Realized

Analysts from New Street Research, under the guidance of Pierre Ferragu, have provided an optimistic outlook on SpaceX's valuation prior to its initial public offering. Their analysis suggests a substantial upside, particularly if the company successfully harnesses its broad potential in various high-growth sectors.

Detailed Report on SpaceX's Financial Prospects

On June 11, 2026, New Street Research published an inaugural report on SpaceX, setting an initial price target of $165 for its upcoming IPO. Based on a planned IPO price of $135, this target indicates a 22% potential increase. The firm’s valuation methodology incorporates a sum-of-the-parts analysis alongside other financial modeling techniques. Projections for SpaceX's revenue in 2030 are set at an ambitious $195.3 billion, distributed among Space ($9.7 billion), Connectivity ($57.9 billion), and Artificial Intelligence ($127.7 billion) segments. This signifies a robust compound annual growth rate of 60% from 2025 to 2030. Furthermore, earnings per share are forecasted to reach $3.30 by 2030.

The comprehensive sum-of-parts valuation breaks down as follows: Telecom at $650 billion, Launch operations at $100 billion, xAI at $575 billion, a premium for owning the physical infrastructure at $325 billion, and an additional premium for orbital data centers at $650 billion, culminating in a total valuation of $2.3 trillion. This aggregate figure supports the $165 price target, offering a 22% gain from the IPO price of $135. Analysts emphasize that this valuation, equating to approximately 45 times the 2030 EBIT and 15 times the 2030 sales, aligns with that of other rapidly expanding technology enterprises like Tesla, Palantir, Cloudflare, and Anduril.

Ferragu highlighted the vast and diverse nature of the space market, anticipating its evolution over more than a decade. He speculated that the total addressable market for space could soar to $20 trillion by 2040. If SpaceX manages to capture a 50% share of this high-end estimate, the fair value per share could potentially reach $330. This scenario would represent a remarkable 144% increase from the initial IPO price, presenting a compelling bull case for long-term investors. SpaceX is expected to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

This detailed analysis underscores the transformative potential of SpaceX, not only as a leader in space transportation but also as a significant player in the burgeoning fields of global connectivity and artificial intelligence. The ambitious targets and the comprehensive valuation model present a clear picture of the company's future trajectory. For investors, this report provides a powerful incentive to consider the long-term growth prospects, given the expansive and innovative markets SpaceX aims to dominate. The anticipated IPO marks a pivotal moment, potentially unlocking substantial value for stakeholders as the company continues to push the boundaries of technological advancement and market expansion.